馃搵 The Scenario

Background, read before you begin

A university has one scholarship spot left. Three finalists have made it to the final round, each holding the top score from a completely different national exam. Keep this card, you will need this data for all four phases.

FinalistExamScore (x)Mean (渭)SD (蟽)
AmaraExam A13210015
DiegoExam B78658
PriyaExam C610500100
1
Phase 1
Same Number, Different Meaning
Task 1a
Your first vote

Without calculating: which finalist should get the scholarship? Write your pick and reasoning.

Task 1b
Attack your own vote

Why might comparing 610, 132, and 78 directly be a mistake? Give a real-world comparison with the same problem.

Task 1c
Find a fairer number

For each finalist, work out how many SDs above or below average they scored, using only their score, mean, and SD. Sketch a bell curve and mark where each finalist sits.

2
Phase 2
Building the Universal Ruler
Task 2a
Generalize your pattern

Write a single formula in \(x\), \(\mu\), \(\sigma\) that gives "SDs from the mean." Test it against your Task 1c values.

Task 2b
Quick-fire check

Apply your formula: (54, 50, 2) 路 (42, 50, 4) 路 (50, 50, 8) 路 (127, 100, 18) 路 (88, 100, 16). Watch the signs.

Task 2c
The whoa question

Standardize the dataset 4, 6, 7, 9 using your rule. Find the mean and SD of your four new values. What do you notice?

HL extension 路 Task 2d

Write \(Z=\frac{X-\mu}{\sigma}\) as \(aX+b\). Use \(\text{E}(aX+b)=a\text{E}(X)+b\) and \(\text{Var}(aX+b)=a^2\text{Var}(X)\) to prove \(\text{E}(Z)=0\), \(\text{Var}(Z)=1\) for any \(\mu, \sigma\).

3
Phase 3
Trust the Ruler
Task 3a
Same z, same rareness?

If two finalists from different exams had the same z-score, would they be equally rare? Predict, with a reason.

Task 3b
Verify it, don't just guess

Use your GDC: find \(P(X>132)\) on \(N(100,15^2)\), then \(P(Z>z)\) on the standard normal. Sketch both curves, shaded, and compare.

Task 3c
Settle the vote, with numbers

Find \(P(Z>z)\) for all three finalists. Rank them. As a committee, decide who wins, and justify it with probability, not raw score.

4
Phase 4
The Missing Spread
A late file arrives: Jordan, Exam D, score 150, \(\mu=110\). SD unknown, but only 2% of candidates scored above 145.
Task 4a
Find the missing z first

Find \(z\) such that \(P(Z>z)=0.02\) using inverse normal. Sketch the curve, shaded, with \(z\) marked.

Task 4b
Solve for the missing SD

Rearrange \(z=\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}\) with \(x=145\), \(\mu=110\), and your \(z\), to find \(\sigma\). Keep full precision.

Task 4c
Re-rank the finalists, one more time

Find Jordan's z-score using \(x=150\). Compare to Amara, Diego, and Priya. Does the scholarship decision change?